VIDEO TRANSCRIPTION
MMCrypto
BITCOIN SUPERCYCLE!!!! [shocking data-driven prediction]
Description generated by Skrybot
The speaker, known as MMCrypto, discusses the current state of the Bitcoin market and shares a prediction on whether the Bitcoin bull market is over. He emphasizes the importance of analyzing data related to smart money, particularly the behavior of whales in the market. The speaker predicts a potential second pump in the market and discusses the possibility of a super cycle in the future due to economic factors like interest rates and money supply. Overall, he advocates for a long-term investment approach in Bitcoin.
Transcription generated by Skrybot
Okay. Hello, everyone. Hello. I'm happy to be in Russia. It's not my first time in Russia. I really love it. I think Moscow is maybe one of the, if not the most beautiful city in the world. And I'm not just saying that. I really love it. Today I am here and I want to talk about a kind of shocking prediction. And I want to answer the question whether this Bitcoin bull market is over or not. A question which of course everyone is asking especially after recently us just going down and sideways. I mean the last few days we were a little bit more green.
So I want to show you some data, evidence and proof as to what I think is going to happen to Bitcoin within the next few days, within the next few weeks, within the next few months. And I think for a trader, for a more short-term investor who tries to outperform the market, that's quite interesting. For long-term holders, of course, it doesn't really matter. We just want to buy and hold Bitcoin. But listen closely. I have some very interesting data to share with you. And first of all, I want you to introduce me just a little bit. For everyone who doesn't know me, I'm MMCrypto. Chris from MMCrypto. I have a YouTube channel called MMCrypto, a Twitter channel called MMCrypto.
And I think my YouTube videos in the English YouTube channel, on the English YouTube channel, they are getting most of the time the most views on YouTube in the English space about Bitcoin. And on Twitter, I have 1. 7 million followers. If you want to follow me, feel free. 8 years ago, I was a taxi driver. I found Bitcoin. I was also an economist. Economist and taxi driver is a good mix. I found Bitcoin, so I thought, hey, that is going to change the world. I understood Bitcoin. I know that it is going to change the world. It is changing the world already. And yeah, I went into Bitcoin. I became a trader later on also in December 2024.
I was number one trader on Bybit from 50 million traders. You can see it on the website even. Buy profitability, which was pretty crazy. I lost some money in March, so I want to be honest here, but December was awesome. So let's talk about Bitcoin now. Here you can see an on-chain metric, which shows you the black line is the Bitcoin price. The orange line is the number of whales buying. . . or selling Bitcoin. So the number of holders which are holding Bitcoin and those addresses have to have more than a thousand Bitcoin per address or entity to be qualified as a whale. Right? And that is interesting.
We want to look at metrics like this because if you are an investor and you want to determine whether the Bitcoin price is going to go up or not or whether it's going to go down, you want to look at the smart money. You don't want to be doing what the dump money is doing, right? If you come to a taxi driver like me and you ask him, hey man, should I buy Bitcoin? Usually the answer is yes, buy Bitcoin whenever it already went up a lot. And you should sell Bitcoin whenever it went down a lot already. Well, I'm telling you the smartest thing is to look at what the smart money is doing.
What are the whales doing? And in crypto, you can look at it at the Bitcoin blockchain. It gives you all the data you need, right? You can see what are the whales doing right now. Are they selling? Are they buying? And that is very interesting to look at. And that is what I want to do here on the first slide. You can see the Bitcoin price, it peaks out. We had a peak in 2011, in 2013, in 2017, in 2021. What are the whales doing at the same time? You can see the red circles, they are signifying whenever the whales stopped accumulating.
whenever the bitcoin race stopped buying and they started to sell and interesting enough you can see the smart money always starts selling just before the bull market high every single time 2013 2017 they started a little bit early but they started selling slowly and they are selling into the bear market and then they start buying again in the bear market and again you can see 2021 they started selling in the end. of the bull market or just before. So now, let's look at what are the whales doing right now. What is the smart money doing right now? That's what we want to know. If you go all the way to the right-hand side where you can see whale accumulation, you can see the whales are still accumulating.
So us as an investor, why should we go and say the bull market is over right now while the smart money, the whales, those people who have 100 million US dollar plus just in Bitcoin, are still accumulating. You want to be selling when they are buying? That's not what I want to be doing at least, right? So this chart already screams at least, and please listen until the end, I have some shocking prediction, bull market is over. That is the next slide. Again, the black line is the Bitcoin price and the blue line is showing us again an on-chain metric very strongly connected to to smart money and dumb money. It's the ratio between long-term holders and short-term holders.
Long-term holders, people who are buying Bitcoin and holding it for longer, they are not necessarily whales, but they are smart money because they are buying Bitcoin for the long term. Long-term holders are much more profitable than short-term holders. And other metric is showing that as well. So here you can see whenever the blue line is going lower, we are having more long-term holders, more short-term holders.
Long-term holders so when it's going lower There's more dumb money in the market when it's going higher There's more smart money in the market and at every single bull market high And every single bull market high you can see that the ratio is the craziest We have the most amount of dumb money in the market you can see and that at least shows us Hey, we have to be a little bit careful on the right hand side.
We just had a big big drop down so a lot of dump money in the market when we hit the high at 109 000 us dollars for bitcoin in january 2025 a quick disclaimer i am having a big long position open right now as well everyone knows every bull market i have a huge long position now it's a 30 million us dollar long position where i took 10 million dollars in profits already and i have another 9 or 10 million us dollars in unrealized profits for bitcoin Here you can see the Bitcoin price. That's a technical indicator. And stick with me until the end for my prediction. You have the Bitcoin price on the upside, the monthly candles. And on the downside, you have the RSI, the Relative Strength Index.
You don't need to know what it means. I will explain to you. The yellow line on the bottom hand side is the Relative Strength Index, which shows us in this case on the monthly candles whether Bitcoin is overbought or oversold. On the monthly candles, historically, without any fail, every single time. The bull market was only over and that works in stocks, it works everywhere. The bull market is only over when we are overbought. We cannot end the bull market, at least in the past, before we are overbought in the market. Same thing with the bear market. A bear market can only end when we are oversold.
And you can see, with every single all-time high, After 245 days 275 days 335 days We are hitting a bull market high the moment Bitcoin on the bottom hand side is overbought on the RSI So now let's fast forward all the way to the right hand side where you see that a little bit thinner Yeah, red red circle Bitcoin is far away from being overbought. We are not overbought for Bitcoin yet. So Is it smart to sell Bitcoin right now on the daily, on the weekly? We were overbought already, but on the monthly, we are far away from that. Also, the days. Since we broke the previous all-time high, usually Bitcoin needs at least 250 days to reach its peak in the parabolic bull market.
So far, we have 180 days. Meaning, maybe there's at least one, two more months to go, right? So far, all the data is pointing towards that. Now, that sounds less surprising. Bitcoin just had a big. . .
pumped to the upside but i've been bullish throughout the last few weeks i've been telling people i don't think the bull market is quite over yet i made a video however and everyone who knows me knows that i like big titles i like shocking titles and i said bitcoin and crypto the biggest crash in history is coming i stick with that the biggest crash in history is coming but is it coming for bitcoin and crypto or is it coming for something else and is this biggest crash in history actually going to benefit Bitcoin and crypto? I'm saying yes. In this video, I was showing this chart, the federal funds effective rate. We are in Keynesian economics and central banks are actually using the interest rate to control through the secondary market the money supply.
So next slide. Whenever the interest rate is going up, we have restrictive monetary policy. So we are restrict. . . M2 money supply in the market that is usually not good for us. It's not good for Bitcoin and that usually happens in Expectation to a recession so you see these gray lines at these gray vertical areas That is a recession so the central banks They are then decreasing the interest rate rapidly after we have these red circles just before the recession To prop up the market to pump the market with M2 money supply print new currency through the secondary market And that is exactly what I was predicting. We had another high on the right-hand side, this red circle. And what I was saying is this predicts a recession.
This predicts a recession. We will see, that is my prediction, in the next few months, further and furthermore, decrease in interest rate, increase in M2 money supply, and we will most likely see a recession coming. That is just my prediction. Don't pinpoint me to that. Within the next 12 months, right? And yes, short term, this can shock Bitcoin, maybe after this bull market. It can shock Bitcoin. But long term, this is exactly what Bitcoin was created for. Bitcoin was created because we have Keynesian economics, because the central banks can print money through the secondary market. It is your safe haven. It is securing your purchasing power. And you can escape the traditional system with something like Bitcoin.
And now my answer to whether the bull market is over or not, keep all of the things I said in mind. Number one, you can see here this channel. This is an all-time channel. The bottom white line is the support. The upper right line is the resistance. And whenever we are hitting support, bear market is over. Whenever we are hitting the upper line, the bull market is over. You can see that in 2011, 2013, 2017, 2021, we had two touches. And I'm quite happy about that. Because without these two touches, we might think, hey, with that first touch, this bull market is over already. Now we know, no, not necessarily.
So my prediction is we will have at least a second pump, which maybe started a few days ago. We all saw that quite nice price movement towards the upside. And there are two scenarios. Both of these scenarios are bullish. First scenario, we are going up and we are getting rejected at the resistance, at the 15-year resistance again. That would bring us to a price of something between $130,000, $150,000 for Bitcoin. with the next run towards the upside. Second scenario for this cycle, and it's not necessarily going to happen this cycle, is a super cycle. And I'm not telling you we will have a super cycle this year. But I will tell you we will have a super cycle. This cycle or the next cycle.
And this super cycle is when we will see interest rates crashing down. I showed you the federal funds effective rate. crashing down, M2 money supply increasing like crazy, and the recession getting so much out of hand that not even negative interest rates can save it. And when this happens, I believe Bitcoin will break the 15-year structure, break the resistance, go towards the upside, and we are going to talk about, potentially, millions of US dollars for Bitcoin. Do not forget that whenever you want to trade Bitcoin, whenever you want to outperform the market, the smartest and safest thing is always to buy. . . Forget about it. Look back at it in 10 years. What I believe is Bitcoin is a long bet. I'm in crypto already for eight years.
Most of my Bitcoin I have never touched and I will continue to do so. Thank you very much everyone. That was my presentation for today. If anyone wants to take pictures, I will be in the conference hall. .
S K R Y B O T
Skrybot. 2023, Video transcriptions from YouTube
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