Transcription: 3 typy na 3 miesiące - nagranie z 17.02.2023

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Welcome very much, Albert Longterm-Rokicki. In the next webinar from the series 3 types for 3 months, I have such technical questions, of course, after the presentation. However, as usual, I recommend full-screen mode, because there will be tables with a fundamental analysis, where I show the basic parameters, such as the incoming, operating profit, net profit, and the curiosities of various types on the Internet. If anyone has any questions, please write in the chat. Very welcome confirmation that you can hear. I'll check it anyway. Yes, I checked that everything is fine here. We move on to the discussion.

At the beginning, a disclaimer, and just a word of introduction, these are the 3 types for the next 3 months. Yesterday the previous series ended. We will probably count them on Thursday, May 18, this year, so it will be spring, I hope, it will be much nicer outside, sunny, much nicer atmosphere, I hope, than today, although Friday always a little dull, this fact, such a gloomy weather, at least here in Warsaw.

And this disclaimer, which I unfortunately have to read out, I beg that no one suggest my types, my proposals, it is purely educational program, this series is purely educational, the content presented in the higher bulletin, in the higher video are the private opinions of the author and do not include investment recommendations in the understanding of the minister of finance's orders on October 19, 2005, in the information case, which includes recommendations regarding financial instruments, their issuers or exporters.

The author did not bear responsibility for decisions made based on current content, nor for the damage caused by the investment decisions made based on current content, and he always adds to the red here, investing in a stock market without proper knowledge and experience is even threatening to lose the whole capital. How did it look in the previous series? It started on November 17, and what do we have here? STS Holding, which we counted on for the World Cup, 2. 1% only, Remis with a slight indication here on the winning one, GeoTrans, unfortunately disappointed, and it literally in the last week, 11.

5% on the minus, and it was promising at the beginning, it's a pity, but Mirbut did not fail, almost 50%, so the average profit was 13. 4% from the previous series, if it was always like that, I would say that on the scale of the year it is done, a few dozen percent, so inflation is boldly beaten at this time, I will remind you that this is a three-month portfolio that repeats itself every quarter.

Let's throw TradingView in this case and analyze it in this case, at the beginning of the week, how the general market looks, it looks very good, it looks great, there are no foundations for any anxiety, even such a correction on the side is a sign of strength of our market.

This previous peak was overcome by some consolidation, now it will most likely be the index of this local peak, I am surprised that we are not there yet, from April 2022, an analogical correction, perhaps deeper then, I am so sure that around May we should register here, or we will even try to go higher, as the French Kakarau did yesterday on Twitter, I was also surprised, because I do not follow this index every day, but it has beaten the historical peak, the German DAX is also flirting with the historical peak, why shouldn't Warsaw repeat it? So this year, I think we have a chance to balance the whole loss of this BESSE last year, and as much as possible, the chart in the league confirms this BESSE attitude, and I think that these types will also be easier to select, because a larger number of companies will bring the desired profits.

And the ones that came out of the portfolio, the coolest star, Mirbut, Budowlanka, where it shows this sector as one of those chosen, this Hoss, a slight correction, I think that there would even be a possible continuation of increases, but I don't want to risk it. And I think you are also curious what I have prepared for you, I don't want to go easy, I don't want to repeat the same position, I'm just betraying Budowlanka, but for now I don't want to make any spoilers here. Mirbut, beautiful behavior, GeoTrans, but I will replace it with another company from Budowlanka. I will talk about these new types in a moment.

Unfortunately, GeoTrans, I was hoping that it would only correct to the 15th and go up, unfortunately it looks like the whole market is a bit false for now, 45 is defending, but here I would absolutely not try to type any more, very ugly breaking of this average 15, it was supposed to defend 45 per week, but I wouldn't want to risk it here for another series of GeoTrans, so it's out. And STS Holding, which I put such great hope in the World Cup, also broke the 15th, just like GeoTrans, but here fortunately for me, that this week it grew by 6%, denying this drop a bit, so the result is on the plus, on this position 2. 1%.

Okay, the first position, and here maybe I will surprise you, because the sector is not associated with me, I very rarely dealt with the chemical sector. Chemistry is very strong, here you have to go with sectors that behave better than the market. Lower, yes, you have to throw the lower thinker here for trading.

This is a chart of VIK Chemistry, actually returned to the top, as long as VIK has problems, VIK Chemistry returned to the top in May last year, they are not ATH at all, because the highest All Time High in history was a few years earlier, so there is also something to do here, but what I mean is that actually from October it is an constant pump, a very strong sector.

And I selected PCC Exol, a company, one might say sister, a smaller sister, PCC Rokita, the same owner, by the way, is also chemical, PCC Rokita, a larger company, over 2 billion cap, PCC Exol, smaller, but in a sector that is resistant to the crisis, I will talk a little more about it in a moment, technically a beautiful thing, because 3 such strong weekly candles, so 3 white soldiers or white crows, it is also said, indicating the beginning of the growth trend, natural correctness, but here I would not be too afraid.

Let's move on to Business Radar PCC Exol, please, financial analysis, maybe we will start with the indicators, the easiest ones, everyone knows them, so I suggest looking at the most popular price for earnings indicator. After the results in the third quarter of last year, it is 4. 2, so theoretically, of course, it is not certain, but BOKA announces that it cannot be heard, while I am testing here that no one else is announcing that it is heard, so maybe there is a problem with you, sorry for this insert, but one of the users here has a problem, please restart, you can check the speakers, 4. 2, while the price for the operating profit is only 3. 2.

Very good results, let's see here financial reports, annual, quarterly, let's see, PCC Exol, do not ask me exactly what they are doing, I had to write here so as not to twist the name, surfactants are producing, surfactants, okay, I managed to get famous, they are the largest producer in Central and Eastern Europe, one of the largest surfactants in Europe, used in cosmetics, cosmetics industry, in detergents, but also in the industry, here the difference between PCC Rokita and PCC Exol is that Exol puts more on detergents, hygenic products and creams, cosmetics in general, for example substances that are money, I also recently read a very interesting lecture about the power of habits, and imagine that shampoos do not have to be money at all, but this is the habit of the consumer, that we want the shampoo to be frizzy, and that's how I just remembered, brilliant lecture, power of habit, I forgot the author, sorry, but that's how I remembered these two things reading the financial report for the third quarter, so sometimes there are such marketing procedures, it has to smell nice, it has to spread very nicely on the face, but the properties would have this cosmetic anyway, so I understand that there are some kind of embellishers, substances that make something liquid, cool, elastic, for example, of course I don't know, but that's what I think, and this cosmetic detergent industry is generally resistant to the crisis, let's face it, a bit like a buffet, so no matter what happens, people have to wash, they have to use personal hygiene products, detergents, clean apartments, the industry also needs it, and it is also a construction site, so this chemistry is resistant, but here it is necessary to say clearly that a lot depends on external factors outside the company, but okay, I talked a little too early about the activity itself, but let's look at the results here, we see the income of 294 million for the third quarter, and the third quarter of 2021 was 199, even 295 can be rounded up to 199.

7, which is an increase of almost 48% in the scale of the year when it comes to income.

When it comes to net profit, there were 20, I want to make sure, yes, because here, I'm sorry, you have to use accumulated, let's go to the info zone, PCC Excel, very good tool, here is the financial report after three quarters, yes, I'm sorry, I looked at the accumulated unit, so it is 900, increasing, I just wanted to point out, from January 1 to September 1, it was 902 million versus 578 in 2021, let's do it again quarterly, 294 in the third quarter, we're back to the material, 295 almost versus 199, here in the second quarter it was 310 versus 187, in general, a petard, there is nothing to talk about, this is an increase in the second quarter, of course, thanks to the external situation, because these surfactas were not available in Europe, so there was a very large demand, 65% of income per year, so they went very hard, and NERTO 27.

7 million versus the third quarter of 2021, 13, you don't even need to use a calculator to know that this is over 100% of the growth, exactly 27. 7, 13. 6, 104% of NERTO growth, and these dynamics are very nice, because in the second quarter, 33, versus the second 10 with a hack, this is a petard, three times higher than the results could be, and accumulated, let's see, 902 versus, here it was 574, huge dynamics, and in NERTO 100 to 35, almost, let's count it exactly, let's take even in the roundabout, 100 to 35, almost three times, 2.

85 times higher income, 180, let's count it again, 186, almost a percent more than a year earlier, it looks very good, and now when it comes to NERTO profit, 185%, year to year better, EBITDA 165%, and this net profit was 100 million zlotys. When it comes to the industry sector, the growth is 53% year to year, and the cosmetics sector is 70% year to year, I also like the company because export is almost 50%. The fact that in the rocket, the export is more, there is roughly over 50% of export, but in this Excel, it is also very good, over 50%.

Now let's look at the stock exchange, each portal gives it a little differently, let's see how it gives a price indicator, the current profit is 5. 6 here on the stock exchange, and the article, what I said, 27. 7 million profit, the shareholder of the dominant unit in the third quarter, EBITDA 13%, so as I counted, this is over 100%, 104% profit, 39, almost a million, EBITDA 18, a year ago.

I also read that the leading cosmetics manufacturers have contracts, and the problems are getting bigger and bigger with production in China, so the demand here in Europe is growing, so these are factors that can help, and let's also remember that as an exporter, who has almost 50% of export, he uses very closely, from very high currency rates, euro, dollar, of course, it is a sword of the abyss, because also raw materials that he needs, oil, polyethylene, they can also be more expensive, but it is known that he has a very high margin, which satisfies and compensates, he is able to transfer it to customers, because as an exporter, he exports a lot, and thanks to the favorable currency rate, the same price can be in dollars or even lower, or in euros, and that this euro is strong, that when you count it, it is more than a zlotys, then this result can be much higher, and I hope that the export will be strong all the time, in the fourth quarter, in the first quarter, I think that the potential in the company is still very large.

Let's see if, when it comes to the publication dates, as I said here, we will count this series on May 18, so on March 20 there will be a report for the whole year, 2022, we will see how they did in the fourth quarter, but on May 16, before the series is calculated, it will be in the first quarter, so it is worth playing, I think, so PCC EXOL, this is my first choice for three months.

We are returning to the chart, the second position is so safe, it is Dino, Dino Poland, in my opinion a star in its 20s, a favorite of foreign funds, there is definitely no state treasury in the shareholder, there are no funds that short, there is no image top, as it was, whether in the case of CD Projekt or Allegro, so I think that this is the king of the Polish stock market, this is such a leader, where abroad, if you want to have an exposure to a strong consumer in Poland, this demand is also generated from immigrants from Ukraine, Belarus, but also remember that here from other countries there is also increasing immigration, even from Asia, we see it, so the second thing in times like this, let's call it maybe not recession, but crisis, because everyone is looking for savings, such discounts to which Dino could be pulled up here, are very popular and I think that Poles will be looking for savings, especially in small towns, in the villages where these Dino are more common, I don't know, unless somewhere in Warsaw there was Dino, correct me if I'm wrong, but what I like about Dino, first of all, it is very strong, nothing really made me, there is nothing to say about it, it is a pre-battle in my opinion, when it comes to the foundations, well, the results are also a mess, let's look at Dino, because it is covered by a large number of analysts who are still making mistakes, it is nice that, in my opinion, there is a big upside, because many analysts of the Mackler houses are afraid to recommend buying, because they think that this development will be stopped, but they have been making mistakes for several years, they still have to raise, raise, raise and Biernacki, the richest Pole, still rubs his nose on them and proves that it can be even better, there may be even greater growth, even greater income.

Before we talk about the stores, I will present the results here, because there really was, maybe the description is not, but the results in the Papu table, there was a consensus of analysts, they still don't appreciate this Dino, so here I see that it is such a popular company and abroad it is interested, and analysts are still making mistakes, they can't feel this gigantic increase year by year in the number of stores, where last year 344 new stores were opened, it is 19% more than last year, also more or less, almost 20% more, and here we see the income of the third quarter, 5.

3 billion, consensus of less than 5% but year by year it is 54% increase year by year, who would have thought, when it comes to net profit, year by year 48% increase and this is a company with a 20% increase, one of the largest, from the largest index, such dynamics year by year, something amazing, net profit, the result of 339 million expectations was 313.

When it comes to the chain of stores, Dino at the end of last year has 2156 and it was an increase, as I mentioned, of 344 stores, it is not the largest chain, because you know, Biedronka has much more stores, it was 3395, but attention, it opened only 157 stores last year, so here Dino opens more than twice as many stores and at this pace the bill is simple, sooner or later it should jump over, drive over Biedra, Biedronka is the largest chain in Poland, where Jeronimo Martins is the owner and foreign funds, wanting to have exposure to the Polish consumer, bought Jeronimo Martins on the Portuguese stock exchange, because Biedronka is not noted in Poland, Jeronimo Martins is also not noted on the Warsaw stock exchange, and it's a pity, because if he would pump us up nicely, he would be the second Dino on the 20s, but let's treat Jeronimo Martins as a Polish company, and that's how the funds are treated, and finally they have Dino for several years, which they can lock, taking profits from the Polish consumer.

I think that there will be no recession, here I am arguing with this soft landing in Poland, credit vacations, I don't know, 500+, some other returns and so on, but also investments, the construction is moving strongly, and these small towns will have something to do, and Dino itself, building 350 shops annually, it also gives a lot of work, these people will have money to spend, among others, in Dino, so I believe in the Polish consumer, unemployment is low, and I am from the camp that speaks for a soft landing, that there will be no recession, and here many analysts are wrong, they are putting on some recession or a severe recession, and therefore some very high unemployment, and problems with the consumer, who is allegedly weak, I think it's not, that there is something to play for all the time, and I am playing here like abroad, to balance the lives of citizens to Western Europe, to France, Germany, Great Britain, we still lack a lot, at least 100% up, that is, 100% more, the consumer will be worth it in 10-15 years, so there is something to play for, such Dino can earn even several times, it is disproportionately more, because if the consumer will spend two times as much, it will not be perfectly transferred to the exchange rate, because then there will be foreign expansion, Dino will go beyond our borders, or maybe he will take over, he will buy off some shops, smaller networks, he will develop through the transfer, so in my opinion there is still a lot to be gained here, I am not at all in the opinion that this is the end of Dino, but of course it is only for the next three months, maybe we do not spend too much, and about the reports, March 23 will be annual, and then May 4, for the first quarter, so after these two reports, I will still play here in this series.

That's it when it comes to Dino Poland, and also like for like, because someone can accuse that these revenues pumped by new shops, but those that were in 2021 versus 2022, so like for like, the same, 28. 3% of the income growth, so this is a phenomenon all the time, even without the growth of shops, this sales in Poland is developing, it is mainly probably by Ukrainians, but I repeat, when there is such a crisis situation, you have to save, it does not go to the first better shop, but to the discount, where there are cheaper prices, some coupons, some promotional actions. If it comes to technology, there is nothing to cling to here, consolidation before the break above the 15-week period.

And the last item from the construction site, 100 steel from Zabrze. This is also from the sentiment, a bit, oh, MSZ symbol on TradingView, from the sentiment, because one of my best investments in life, for 2 zlotys with a hack I bought in 2006, literally it was phenomenal, because a year and a half and he reached a rate of over 18 zlotys, so 9 times the profit on a large capital, I even had such plans to throw Etet for a moment, well, some God's hand stopped me from doing this, and well, because it started without it in 2007, but going through the topic, technically very nicely, the previous peak, and I keep the trend here, I think, most of the steel from Zabrze.

One more thing about Dino, I forget, this is the food price index.

It is known that this food in Dino generates most of the transfers, so if the panic was during the Putin invasion, this is an international index, $ 160 and it fell to $ 132 from the peak, so that's quite a lot, because it's about 18% below the peak, and the clients got used to the prices that are, and there is no panic to lower them, so Dino may use one or two quarters, when the food prices are cheaper, and he keeps the same prices, because the consumer will be used to the fact that tomatoes are more expensive, apples, butter, what else is there, what is so expensive, eggs, but generally the margins should be, so I'm looking here quietly, this is just my theory, it's not my basic scenario, mega, but if it happened that the food would be cheaper, then a few nice quarters will be able to make Dino earn beautifully on this, increasing the margins.

But moving on to Mostostal Zabrze, let's check here, because technically everything is right there, messages, backlog, that is, orders for over a billion, 100 million, this is information about the results in the third quarter, Mostostal Zabrze had 10. 6 million net net profit over the last four million years, so here another subject that does not do anything, without any economic problems, and it is said that the construction company has a crisis, no, this industrial engineering infrastructure does not, it even flourishes, it has more and more orders, recently with Basf, with a large subject, I don't remember the names of the waste burning plants, so here in this direction they are developing very strongly.

In the period from the first quarter to the third quarter, the company had 23 million net profit, compared to the previous year's one hundred million profit, so there are also over 100% net profit increases. What does it look like when it comes to the indicators and the basic CZ 7, 7. 07, which is another cheap company, I will remind you that PCC Exel had, depending on the portal, or 5. 6 on the stock, and on the business radar even less, 4. 1, here it is 7.

07, and the indicators on the Polish stock market can be selected, now there are a lot of such cheap companies below 10 CZ, CZ below 10, so generally theoretically, if there were the same net profits in the next few years, after seven years the investor returns the investment, or in the case of PCC Exel after five years, even if they assume the higher CZ, or six, but it is really very, very cheap, these are companies in the style of Buffett. CWK 0. 87, so theoretically for 0. 87 a penny is bought a zlotówka company property.

So there is nothing to cling to too much, here contracts dominate from public utility objects, 22%, the chemical industry, maybe even PCC Exel, here some synergy between these two types, maybe it is expanding, because I also forgot to mention that PCC Exel is expanding production power very strongly, 45,000 tons is supposed to be an increase in production power, this is an increase of 139,000 tons, that is 32% by the end of this year.

And I don't even mention that they are building another plant, so I don't even play for it, because you know, three months I can't wait for the new one, but here there may be a game for increasing power this year, and about PCC Exel, it's good that I mentioned it, but this branch is diversified when it comes to these segments, so it's not like they're building apartments, here the machine industry is 14%, so there are a lot of contracts for public utility.

Let's check Mostostal, and I also deserve to mention that Mostostal has 36 million ready-made by the end of Q3, which is 182 million when it comes to capitalization, let's make sure I'm not lying, I'm talking about capitalization from the top of my head, but at the moment 184, to be precise, 36 to 184, almost 20% of capitalization is ready-made and ready-made equivalents, some obligations purchased, for example, instead of keeping ready-made on the account, so if 20% of capitalization is ready-made, then from American statistics, when I came across such a company, the company is almost a growth.

Of course, there are also various exceptions, where there are some scams, there are governments, and there were even such pathologies that there is more ready-made than capitalization of the company on the stock exchange, but in the case of a normal solid company, fundamentally, it is a very healthy phenomenon. Let's look at Mostostal here, new topics are being introduced all the time, here, for example, there is a recommendation for 2. 74, currently traded at 2. 46, so even the Mackler from the Matersky house gave 2. 74 boldly, and it is known that they are rather conservative, 11% of the top is upside, even here and now.

So I think that the construction company will have a few nice blocks ahead of it, especially now, as before the elections, the economy will be stimulated by the expenses for the reconstruction of infrastructure, and here viaducts, bridges, I also specialize in this Mostostal-Zabrze, because the bridge on Tamiz built the stadium, and in Frankfurt, in the Capstadio, for example, if some non-sport facilities had to be built, it would not be able to accept it either, so very versatile, engineering, with a reputation recognized all over the world, because they are known in Great Britain and in Scandinavian countries, I remember when I was still analyzing, these contracts were from all over Europe, and in the Capstadio they built the RWPA stadium before the World Cup, so here, huge traditions, huge experience, and I say, the sentiment of tears is spinning, that this Hossa Budowlana is coming back, just like in 2003-2007, so summarizing, 3 types for 3 months, Mostostal-Zabrze is visible here, very conservatively, however, because a large company, I hope, will be a stabilizer, at least it will not lose, but it will gain a few percent, a few dozen, I hope, and maybe when it hits more, food, sales to a very strong consumer in Poland, Grappott abroad, Dino Poland, and PCC Excel, finally, a chemical company, a sister company, PCC Rokita, the same owner, the majority, it looks beautiful technically, a breakthrough, so these 3 topics I propose for the next series, the entry price we will take from 15 o'clock, from today, when the webinar started, when I started talking, we will take it, on a condition, not typically from 15, because I was forced during the day to conduct this webinar.

Albert Rokicki

3 typy na 3 miesiące - nagranie z 17.02.2023

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